Spatiotemporal Patterns of Extreme Precipitation Events over Jhelum River Basin

Ijaz Ahmad, Li Wang (), Faisal Ali and Fan Zhang
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Ijaz Ahmad: China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, CAS-HEC, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
Li Wang: State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China
Faisal Ali: Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan
Fan Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 23, 1-18

Abstract: Climate change has a wide range of impacts on Pakistan’s water resources system, followed by increased magnitude, frequency and intensity of extreme events. Therefore, investigating the variations in extreme climatic events is vital in planning and developing agriculture and water conservation projects. Hence, the present study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) over the Jhelum River basin (JRB) using the Mann-Kendall (MK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. In addition, variations in the event-based extreme precipitation (EEPs) and time distribution patterns (TDPs) were analyzed because EPIs considered the daily precipitation values only and the combined effect of the extreme events that last for more than 1 day were often neglected. The results show that the fixed and station-related EPIs, i.e., R10, R20, R25, CWD, Prcpt and R95p, exhibited significant decreasing trends at 06, 05, 04, 04, 07 and 05 stations, whereas an increasing trend was evident for consecutive dry days (CDD) at nine stations with a magnitude of 0.33 days/year, indicating a rise in the drought events compared to floods. Moreover, precipitation events with an amount of 40–290 mm, duration of 4–7 days and concentration ratio of 0.7–0.95 were found to be dominant across JRB. Therefore, an increase in the CDD and a decrease in the consecutive wet days (CWD) may change the magnitude, intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events and consequently pressure the availability of water resources. Therefore, the findings of this study may help understand the precipitation variability over JRB and play a pivotal role in future development projects.

Keywords: spatiotemporal variability; precipitation indices; Mann-Kendall; innovative trend analysis; time distribution patterns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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