Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia

Changqing Sun, Yulong Bao (), Battsengel Vandansambuu and Yuhai Bao
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Changqing Sun: Department of Geography, School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
Yulong Bao: College of Geographical Science, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China
Battsengel Vandansambuu: Department of Geography, School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
Yuhai Bao: College of Geographical Science, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 23, 1-21

Abstract: Modeling and predicting land use/cover change (LUCC) and identifying its drivers have been a focus of research over the past few decades. In order to solve the problem of land resource degradation in typical pastoral areas, reveal the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of LUCC, and the contradiction between man and land in sustainable development, we analyze the Gurvanbulag area of Bulgan province, Mongolia, where grassland degradation is relatively serious. The LUCC data in 2000, 2010 and 2019 were obtained through interpreting human-computer interaction. On this basis, the same binary logistic regression (BLR) results were input into the multi-criteria evaluation analytic hierarchy process (MCE_AHP) of CLUE-S and CA_Markov models. The Current Trends (CT) and Ecological Protection (EP) development scenarios were used to predict the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of LUCC in 2030 and 2040. The results show: (1) both models can effectively simulate the LUCC in 2019, and the CLUE-S model was significantly better than the CA_Markov model. (2) From 2000 to 2019, the LUCC in this region was dominated by a decrease in water and the growth of grassland and other land, indicating that the region is at the risk of land resource degradation. (3) In a multi-scenario development study, by 2030 and 2040, both models predicted that the EP development scenario is more effective in protecting the local ecological environment and it is easier to achieve the sustainability of land resources, than the CT development scenario. Combined with local policy demands and the prediction results of restraining land resource degradation, CLUE-S was significantly higher than the CA_Markov model, indicating that in typical pastoral areas, the former is more in line with the need for sustainable development of the local ecological environment than the latter.

Keywords: typical pastoral area; land resource degradation; binary logistic regression; CLUE-S; CA_Markov (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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