Impacts and Projections of Land Use and Demographic Changes on Ecosystem Services: A Case Study in the Guanzhong Region, China

Yiting Chen, Zhanbin Li, Peng Li, Yixin Zhang, Hailiang Liu and Jinjin Pan
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Yiting Chen: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Zhanbin Li: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Peng Li: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Yixin Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Hailiang Liu: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China
Jinjin Pan: State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, No. 5 South Jinhua Road, Xi’an 710048, China

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-20

Abstract: Land use change and demographic factors directly or indirectly affect ecosystem services value, and the analysis of ecosystem services contributes to optimization of land planning, which is essential for regional sustainable development. In this study, ArcGIS 10.2, IDRISI 17.0 Selva and MATLAB software, value coefficient method, CA-Markov prediction model and population growth model were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of land use trends and ecosystem service values in Guanzhong region, and further predict the impacts of land type changes and population changes on ecosystem services in the context of urbanization. Results showed that the expansion of construction land was the most intense, and the transfer process mainly crowded out arable land; the total ecosystem services value grew spatially in a “low center-high periphery” ring with large differences at the bottom, and forest land was the most important value provider. The total ecosystem services value was estimated to decline in the future, with low-value areas spreading northward and differences in the per capita ecosystem services value increasing. This study provides a reference for optimal simulation of urban expansion and ecological conservation.

Keywords: ecosystem services; land use changes; population; projection; CA-Markov; Guanzhong (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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