The Investigation of Monthly/Seasonal Data Clustering Impact on Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Accuracy: Ontario Province Case Study

Nazila Pourhaji, Mohammad Asadpour, Ali Ahmadian and Ali Elkamel
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Nazila Pourhaji: Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 5166616471, Iran
Mohammad Asadpour: Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 5166616471, Iran
Ali Ahmadian: Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Bonab, Bonab 5551761167, Iran
Ali Elkamel: Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-14

Abstract: The transformation of the electricity market structure from a monopoly model to a competitive market has caused electricity to be exchanged like a commercial commodity in the electricity market. The electricity price participants should forecast the price in different horizons to make an optimal offer as a buyer or a seller. Therefore, accurate electricity price prediction is very important for market participants. This paper investigates the monthly/seasonal data clustering impact on price forecasting. To this end, after clustering the data, the effective parameters in the electricity price forecasting problem are selected using a grey correlation analysis method and the parameters with a low degree of correlation are removed. At the end, the long short-term memory neural network has been implemented to predict the electricity price for the next day. The proposed method is implemented on Ontario—Canada data and the prediction results are compared in three modes, including non-clustering, seasonal, and monthly clustering. The studies show that the prediction error in the monthly clustering mode has decreased compared to the non-clustering and seasonal clustering modes in two different values of the correlation coefficient, 0.5 and 0.6.

Keywords: clustering; LSTM; deep learning; price forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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