Developing Robust Flood Susceptibility Model with Small Numbers of Parameters in Highly Fertile Regions of Northwest Bangladesh for Sustainable Flood and Agriculture Management

Showmitra Kumar Sarkar, Saifullah Bin Ansar, Khondaker Mohammed Mohiuddin Ekram, Mehedi Hasan Khan, Swapan Talukdar, Mohd Waseem Naikoo, Abu Reza Towfiqul Islam, Atiqur Rahman and Amir Mosavi
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Showmitra Kumar Sarkar: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
Saifullah Bin Ansar: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
Khondaker Mohammed Mohiuddin Ekram: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
Mehedi Hasan Khan: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
Swapan Talukdar: Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Science, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India
Mohd Waseem Naikoo: Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Science, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India
Abu Reza Towfiqul Islam: Department of Disaster Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur 5400, Bangladesh
Atiqur Rahman: Department of Geography, Faculty of Natural Science, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India
Amir Mosavi: John von Neumann Faculty of Informatics, Obuda University, 1034 Budapest, Hungary

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: The present study intends to improve the robustness of a flood susceptibility (FS) model with a small number of parameters in data-scarce areas, such as northwest Bangladesh, by employing machine learning-based sensitivity analysis and an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the nine most relevant flood elements (such as distance from the river, rainfall, and drainage density) were chosen as flood conditioning variables for modeling. The FS model was produced using AHP technique. We used an empirical and binormal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for validating the models. We performed Sensitivity analyses using a random forest (RF)-based mean Gini decline (MGD), mean decrease accuracy (MDA), and information gain ratio to find out the sensitive flood conditioning variables. After performing sensitivity analysis, the least sensitivity variables were eliminated. We re-ran the model with the rest of the parameters to enhance the model’s performance. Based on previous studies and the AHP weighting approach, the general soil type, rainfall, distance from river/canal (Dr), and land use/land cover (LULC) had higher factor weights of 0.22, 0.21, 0.19, and 0.15, respectively. The FS model without sensitivity and with sensitivity performed well in the present study. According to the RF-based sensitivity and information gain ratio, the most sensitive factors were rainfall, soil type, slope, and elevation, while curvature and drainage density were less sensitive parameters, which were excluded in re-running the FS model with just vital parameters. Using empirical and binormal ROC curves, the new FS model yields higher AUCs of 0.835 and 0.822, respectively. It is discovered that the predicted model’s robustness may be maintained or increased by removing less relevant factors. This study will aid decision-makers in developing flood management plans for the examined region.

Keywords: flood susceptibility; remote sensing; MCDM; machine learning; sensitivity; natural hazards; artificial intelligence; extreme events; big data; data science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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