Simulation of Groundwater Flow Dynamics under Different Stresses Using MODFLOW in Rechna Doab, Pakistan

Muhammad Awais (), Muhammad Arshad, Sajid Rashid Ahmad, Aftab Nazeer (), Muhammad Mohsin Waqas, Rizwan Aziz, Aamir Shakoor, Muhammad Rizwan, Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary, Qaisar Mehmood and Matlob Ahmad
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Muhammad Awais: College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
Muhammad Arshad: Department of Irrigation & Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
Sajid Rashid Ahmad: College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
Aftab Nazeer: Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 60800, Pakistan
Muhammad Mohsin Waqas: Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khawaja Fareed University of Engineering & Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan
Rizwan Aziz: College of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
Aamir Shakoor: Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 60800, Pakistan
Muhammad Rizwan: Department of Civil Engineering, Swedish College of Engineering and Technology, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan
Junaid Nawaz Chauhdary: Water Management Research Centre, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
Qaisar Mehmood: Department of Agriculture (Field Wing), Government of Punjab, Faisalabad 35400, Pakistan
Matlob Ahmad: Department of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, Ghazi University D.G. Khan, D.G. Khan 32200, Pakistan

Sustainability, 2022, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-23

Abstract: Groundwater is a primary source of freshwater provisions all around the world. Due to its limited availability, water has become a precious entity nowadays. The future accessibility of groundwater is endangered due to its massive exploitation, particularly in the irrigation sector. Therefore, the current study was conducted to assess the declining groundwater levels in Rechna Doab, Punjab, Pakistan, where the aquifer has been reported to be highly stressed. A groundwater flow model was developed using the MODFLOW code of the USGS, and the steady-state model was calibrated for the year 2006, followed by a transient calibration for the years 2006–2010. Finally, the model was validated for 2011–2013, and a new scenario-based approach was used. Multiple future scenarios were developed to simulate the future response of the aquifer under changed recharge and pumping. The hydrodynamics of the groundwater flow was studied for two decades, i.e., up to 2033. The results under the business-as-usual scenario revealed a net gain in water levels in the upper parts of the study area. In contrast, a lowering of water levels was predicted in the central and lower parts. A maximum drop in the water level was anticipated to be 5.17 m, with a maximum gain of 5 m. For Scenario II, which followed the historical trend of pumping, an overall decline in water levels was observed, with a maximum expected drawdown of 15.68 m. However, the proposed water management Scenario III showed a general decrease in the upper study region, with the highest drop being 10.7 m, whereas an overall recovery of 6.87 m in the lower regions was observed. The simulations also suggested that the unconfined aquifer actively responded to the different scenario-based interventions. It was concluded that the region’s aquifer needs immediate action regarding pumping and recharge patterns to avoid a potential increase in pumping costs and to preserve the sustainability of endangered groundwater resources. Moreover, proper groundwater pumping and its policy legislation for its management should be implemented in order to protect this precious resource.

Keywords: MODFLOW; future scenarios; irrigated agriculture; hydrodynamics; recharge (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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