Multi-Criteria Seismic Risk Assessment Based on Combined Weight-TOPSIS Model and CF-Logistic Regression Model—A Case Study of Songyuan City, China

Jiale Zhu, Yichen Zhang (), Jiquan Zhang, Yanan Chen, Yijun Liu and Huanan Liu
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Jiale Zhu: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Yichen Zhang: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Jiquan Zhang: Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Yanan Chen: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Yijun Liu: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Huanan Liu: College of Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130021, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-28

Abstract: Urban seismic hazards are natural disasters caused by earthquakes in urban areas, which may lead to serious casualties, the collapse of buildings, infrastructure damage, and other impacts, require huge social resources for recovery and reconstruction, and even affect the security stability and sustainable development of the area. This paper adopts the research idea of “Risk = Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability ÷ Emergency response and recovery capability” and constructs an evaluation system containing 24 representative indicators on this basis. The CF-logistic regression model is applied in the study to calculate the seismic hazard, while the combined weight-TOPSIS model is used to assess the vulnerability of urban hazard-bearing body. Lastly, the study conducts multi-criteria seismic risk evaluation using the GIS platform. The results show that the overall seismic risk in Songyuan is moderate, with 18.66% of the medium-risk area, 37.68% of the very low risk area, 33.96% of the low-risk area, 8.47% of the high-risk area, and 1.23% of the very high-risk area. The significance of this study is to provide a scientific basis for formulating corresponding disaster prevention and mitigation measures and emergency plans, improving urban disaster prevention and emergency response capabilities, reducing urban earthquake disaster losses, and helping to achieve safe and stable urban development.

Keywords: multi-criteria evaluation model; combined weights-TOPSIS; CF-logistic regression model; seismic vulnerability; seismic risk; seismic hazard (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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