Research on Provincial Carbon Emission Reduction Path Based on LMDI-SD-Tapio Decoupling Model: The Case of Guizhou, China

Hongqiang Wang, Wenyi Xu () and Yingjie Zhang
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Hongqiang Wang: School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Wenyi Xu: School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Yingjie Zhang: School of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 17, 1-20

Abstract: The successful implementation of the national carbon emissions reduction work necessitates the collaboration of various regions. Carbon emission reduction strategies need to be adjusted according to local circumstances due to the differences in regional development levels. From 2005 to 2020, carbon emissions were measured in Guizhou Province, and the contribution degree and action direction of various influencing factors were analyzed using the LMDI model. Using an SD model, we performed dynamic simulations of carbon emission trends under eight scenarios and calculated the Tapio decoupling relationship between economic growth and CO 2 emissions. According to the study, carbon emissions in Guizhou Province increased from 2005 to 2020, emphasizing the high pressure for carbon emission reduction. The industry sector ranked first in contribution, contributing 62.71% in 2020. Furthermore, this study found a weak decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. The economic scale was the key driver driving the increase in carbon emissions, whereas the industrial fossil energy intensity was the main factor inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions. Additionally, it was predicted that carbon emissions would only peak at 277.71 million tons before 2030 if all three measures were implemented simultaneously, and a strong decoupling relationship with economic growth could be achieved as early as possible. These findings provided Guizhou Province with an effective path for reducing carbon emissions.

Keywords: LMDI; system dynamics; scenario simulation; tapio decoupling analysis; the carbon emission reduction path (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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