Design and Optimization of a Coal Substitution Path Based on Cost–Benefit Analysis: Evidence from Coal Resource-Based Cities in China

Jia Wu, Na Wu, Qiang Feng, Chenning Deng, Xiaomin Zhang, Zeqiang Fu, Zeqian Zhang and Haisheng Li ()
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Jia Wu: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Na Wu: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Qiang Feng: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Chenning Deng: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Xiaomin Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Zeqiang Fu: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Zeqian Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
Haisheng Li: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 21, 1-14

Abstract: Coal burning is a major contributor to air pollution. Selecting the optimal coal alternative path with economic feasibility and maximum environmental benefits is an important policy choice to mitigate air pollution. It could provide a basis for the design of energy transition policies and the green development of coal resource-based cities. This study designed a coal substitution policy based on the multi-objective optimization model, explored the optimal coal substitution path in coal resource-based cities with the goal of minimizing the costs and maximizing the benefits of coal substitution, and assessed the maximum emission reduction potential of air pollutants. The results show that: (1) by 2025, coal consumption in the study area must be reduced to 85%. The optimal coal substitution path is 90.00% coal-to-electricity and 10.00% coal-to-gas for civil emission sources and 83.94% coal-to-electricity and 16.06% coal-to-gas for industrial boiler emission sources. (2) by 2030, coal consumption must be reduced to 75%. The optimal coal substitution path is 90.00% coal-to-electricity and 10.00% coal-to-gas for civil sources and 78.80% coal-to-electricity and 21.20% coal-to-gas for industrial boiler sources. (3) by implementing the coal substitution policy, emissions of six key air pollutants such as SO 2 , NO X , CO, VOCs, PM 10 , and PM 2.5 could decrease significantly.

Keywords: coal substitution; multi-objective optimization; cost–benefit analysis; emission reduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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