The Impact of Migration on Forecasting Budget Expenditures on Education: The Sustainability Context

Tetiana Zatonatska, Olena Liashenko, Yana Fareniuk, Łukasz Skowron, Tomasz Wołowiec and Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi ()
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Tetiana Zatonatska: Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine
Olena Liashenko: Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine
Yana Fareniuk: Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University, 03-022 Kyiv, Ukraine
Łukasz Skowron: Faculty of Management, Lublin University of Technology, 20-618 Lublin, Poland
Tomasz Wołowiec: Institute of Public Administration and Business, WSEI University, 20-209 Lublin, Poland
Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi: Institute of Public Administration and Business, WSEI University, 20-209 Lublin, Poland

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 21, 1-21

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of migration and changes in the population’s age structure on government expenditures on education in Ukraine. The cohort method, considering a group of people attending four main types of education, namely, preschool, general secondary, vocational and technical, and higher education, is used to analyze and forecast government expenditures in the medium and long term. The study results show that migration significantly impacts government budget expenditures on education, with the most significant impact being seen on preschool education, followed by higher education, while the impact on general secondary and vocational education is minimal. The number of people receiving education in one of the four main types of institutions funded by state and local budgets was predicted to gradually decrease during the forecast period, except for secondary and vocational education. The overall volume of state expenditures would gradually decrease, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP. Improving educational processes and the quality of budget spending should become an area for state regulation to ensure quality education in all funding conditions. This research’s leading theoretical and practical results show the efficiency of this methodology for analyzing and forecasting budget expenditures on education. They can be helpful in the short and medium terms, considering all potential changes in demographic indicators regarding the population.

Keywords: immigration; mathematical modeling; forecasting; migration flows; data analysis; population dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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