Spatiotemporal Changes and the Prediction of Drought Characteristics in a Major Grain-Producing Area of China

Linghui Guo, Yuanyuan Luo, Yao Li, Tianping Wang, Jiangbo Gao (), Hebing Zhang, Youfeng Zou and Shaohong Wu
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Linghui Guo: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Yuanyuan Luo: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Yao Li: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Tianping Wang: Nature Reserve and Wildlife Conservation Center, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Jiangbo Gao: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Rd., Beijing 100101, China
Hebing Zhang: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Youfeng Zou: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Shaohong Wu: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Rd., Beijing 100101, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 22, 1-19

Abstract: Understanding variations in drought characteristics is of great importance for water resource planning and agriculture risk management. Despite increasing interest in exploring spatiotemporal drought patterns, long-term drought event characteristics and their future changes are unclear in major grain-producing areas in China. In this study, we applied Run theory, Sen’s slope, the modified Mann–Kendall method, wavelet analysis, and three machine learning models to systematically examine drought variation patterns, their future trends, and agricultural exposure in Henan Province, China, from 1961 to 2019. The results indicated that the SPEI-12 showed a significant increase at a rate of 0.0017/month during 1961–1999, but this has gradually changed to a drying trend since the 21st century. Drought event characteristics shifted markedly during these two periods, with drought duration and severity gradually shifting from east to west. The BO-LSTM model performed better than the LSTM and BP models, indicating that the drought frequency, higher drought duration, and drought peak would greatly increase 1.28–3.40-fold and cropland exposure is predicted to increase 1.61-fold in the near future compared to the first two decades of the 21st century. This finding not only helps developing meteorological drought predicting models, but also provides the scientific groundwork for drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan Province.

Keywords: cropland exposure; drought event characteristics; drought prediction; Henan Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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