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Dynamic Evaluation Method for Mutation Degree of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit

Ting Chen, Jianxiao Ma (majx@njfu.edu.cn), Shuang Li, Zhenjun Zhu and Xiucheng Guo
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Ting Chen: School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Jianxiao Ma: School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Shuang Li: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Zhenjun Zhu: School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
Xiucheng Guo: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 22, 1-17

Abstract: When urban rail transit is affected by interference, the fluctuation pattern of passenger flow undergoes mutation, which is not conducive to its operational safety and sustainable development. The more intense the mutation in the passenger flow, the greater the impact on the network and operations. Therefore, it is necessary to measure and evaluate the mutation degree of the urban rail transit passenger flow. In this study, we clarify the definition of the mutation degree of urban rail transit passenger flow and construct an evaluation index system for the mutation degree of passenger flow from two dimensions: horizontal mutation amplitude and vertical mutation amplitude. Based on the catastrophe theory, an evaluation model of the mutation degree was constructed. Using this evaluation method, abbreviated as CDCT, the level division of the mutation degree at different time intervals under different interference scenarios can be obtained, achieving a dynamic evaluation of the mutation degree of passenger flow. Finally, taking the passenger flow data of the Suzhou rail transit as an example, the mutational fluctuation of passenger flow affected by interference is analyzed, and the evaluation results of the mutation degree of passenger flow are obtained. The analysis results show that the CDCT evaluation method can better reflect the dynamic changes in the mutation degree throughout the process under the influence of the mutational passenger flow.

Keywords: urban rail transit; passenger flow; mutation degree; dynamic evaluation; catastrophe theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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