On the Club Convergence in China’s Provincial Coal Consumptions: Evidence from a Nonlinear Time-Varying Factor Model

Yinnan He, Ruxiang Qin () and Bangjun Wang
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Yinnan He: School of Safety Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Ruxiang Qin: School of Safety Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
Bangjun Wang: School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: Coal has been the fundamental energy source supporting China’s energy supply and consumption. This paper examines convergence clubs for per capita coal consumption among 30 provinces of China between 1997 and 2019 by means of a nonlinear time-varying factor model. Meanwhile, the ordered probit model is further used to identify the causes affecting convergence. The results of analyses of data strongly support the existence of convergence clubs, indicating that there are four convergence clubs and one divergence group at the interprovincial level. Among the factors that potentially influence provincial coal consumption, the GDP-per capital, industrial structure, intensity of environment regulations and carbon emissions are positively related to per capita coal consumption, while investment in fixed assets, degree of openness to the outside world and technological progress are negatively related to per capita coal consumption. Increases in GDP-per capital, industrial structure, intensity of environment regulations and carbon emissions enhance the odds of belonging to a high coal consumption intensity club. Increases in investment in fixed assets, degree of openness to the outside world and technological progress reduce the odds of belonging to a high coal consumptions intensity club. These findings help policy makers to set coal production and consumption targets for different regions and reduce the differences in coal consumption across regions.

Keywords: energy security; convergence club; coal consumption; nonlinear time-varying factor model; ordered probit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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