A Simulation Study on the Impact of the Digital Economy on CO 2 Emission Based on the System Dynamics Model

Zhenzhen Liao (), Shaofeng Ru and Yiyang Cheng
Additional contact information
Zhenzhen Liao: School of Economics & Management, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Shaofeng Ru: School of Economics & Management, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
Yiyang Cheng: School of Economics & Management, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 4, 1-24

Abstract: The digital economy plays an important role in achieving the strategic goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” in China. In this study, we construct a system dynamics (SD) model to comprehensively analyze the impact of the digital economy on CO 2 emission. First, we simulate and forecast the future baseline of the digital economy, energy consumption, and CO 2 emission in China from 2005 to 2040. Second, we study the impact of the digital economy on CO 2 emission based on scenario analysis of different digital economy growth rates. Finally, we study the influencing factors of CO 2 emission reduction effect of the digital economy. The results indicate the following: (1) CO 2 emission will peak in 2034. From 2020 to 2025, the cumulative reduction in energy consumption intensity will be 15.75% and the cumulative reduction in CO 2 emission intensity will be 20.9%. Both indicators will reach the national goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. However, it will require more effort to realize the goal of the share of non-fossil energy. (2) There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and CO 2 emission. The digital economy aggravates CO 2 emission mainly by promoting energy consumption, but it reduces CO 2 emission by promoting the upgrading of the energy consumption structure and reducing the energy consumption intensity. (3) The R&D investment intensity and the environment investment intensity can strengthen the CO 2 emission reduction effect of the digital economy. The results will be crucial for carbon reduction and provide policymakers with suggestions for sustainability.

Keywords: digital economy; CO 2 emission; system dynamics model; scenario simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3368/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/4/3368/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:4:p:3368-:d:1066220

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().