The Bioclimatic Change of the Agricultural and Natural Areas of the Adriatic Coastal Countries

Ioannis Charalampopoulos (), Fotoula Droulia and Jeffrey Evans
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Ioannis Charalampopoulos: Laboratory of General and Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Crop Science, Agricultural University of Athens, 11855 Athens, Greece
Fotoula Droulia: Laboratory of General and Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Crop Science, Agricultural University of Athens, 11855 Athens, Greece
Jeffrey Evans: The Nature Conservancy, Global Science, Ecosystem Sciences and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82070, USA

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 6, 1-26

Abstract: In this study, the present bioclimatic conditions and the estimated changes of the bioclimate over natural and agricultural areas of the Adriatic territory (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Italy, Montenegro, and Slovenia) are analysed and presented. For this purpose, a survey on De Martonne’s bioclimate categories’ spatial distribution over the entire examined area and individual countries is conducted for the reference period (1981–2010) and for three more future time periods (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under two emissions scenarios (ssp370/RCP7 and ssp585/RCP8.5). The very high spatial resolution (~300 m) results demonstrate that the potential future alterations of the Adriatic territory’s bioclimate indicate the probable acceleration of the trend towards warmer and dryer conditions by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, with the Italian region’s agricultural areas mainly being influenced. Moreover, as the studied scenarios project, the bioclimatic impact will affect natural and agricultural areas. For the agricultural areas, the semi-dry class (the most xerothermic in the study area) will expand from 4.9% (reference period) to 17.7% according to the RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2071–2100. When over the natural areas, the related variation of the same class is from 0.9% to 5.6%. In general, the western part of the Adriatic coastline is more vulnerable to climate results than the eastern one.

Keywords: climate change; bioclimate classification; De Martonne index; aridisation; Italy; Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Croatia; Italy; Montenegro; Slovenia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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