The Pandemic Waves’ Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries

Costin Radu Boldea, Bogdan Boldea () and Tiberiu Iancu ()
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Costin Radu Boldea: Faculty of Mathematics-Informatics, University of Craiova, 200385 Craiova, Romania
Tiberiu Iancu: Faculty of Management and Rural Tourism, University of Life Science” King Mihai I”, 300645 Timisoara, Romania

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 8, 1-15

Abstract: This study examines the response of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in local currency to the COVID-19 pandemic using monthly data (March 2020–February 2022), comparatively for six European countries. We have introduced a model of multivariate adaptive regression that considers the quasi-periodic effects of pandemic waves in combination with the global effect of the economic shock to model the variation in the price of crude oil at international levels and to compare the induced effect of the pandemic restriction as well and the oil price variation on each country’s CPI. The model was tested for the case of six emergent countries and developed European countries. The findings show that: (i) pandemic restrictions are driving a sharp rise in the CPI, and consequently inflation, in most European countries except Greece and Spain, and (ii) the emergent economies are more affected by the oil price and pandemic restriction than the developed ones.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index; non-linear regression model; post-pandemic effects; petroleum prices; OPEC basket (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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