Projection of the Co-Reduced Emissions of CO 2 and Air Pollutants from Civil Aviation in China

Xiurui Guo (), Chunxiao Ning, Yaqian Shen, Chang Yao, Dongsheng Chen and Shuiyuan Cheng
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Xiurui Guo: Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Chunxiao Ning: Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Yaqian Shen: Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Chang Yao: Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Dongsheng Chen: Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Shuiyuan Cheng: Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Faculty of Environment and Life, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 9, 1-23

Abstract: Civil aviation transport is a key area of fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission, and it is also an important source of air pollutants; the emissions of these have caused severe environmental problems. In this paper, we estimated the emissions in 235 domestic civil airports, and predicted the future trends of CO 2 and air pollutant emissions from civil aviation in China until 2050 under three scenarios. The co-reduced emissions of each measure were evaluated by using the co-control effects coordinate system. The results show that in 2018, the emissions of CO 2 , NOx, SO 2 , CO, PM and HC were 117.23 × 10 6 tons, 90.47 × 10 4 tons, 14.37 × 10 4 tons, 9 × 10 4 tons, 1.29 × 10 4 tons and 0.66 × 10 4 tons, respectively. CO 2 , NOx, SO 2 and PM emissions were mainly concentrated in cruise mode, accounting for 87–93% of the total emissions; HC and CO emissions were more frequently from the LTO. Under the baseline scenario, the growth rate of air pollutant emissions will account for a greater share, from 84% in 2030 to 464% in 2050, whereas the general scenario reduces emissions by 15% and 71%, respectively, and a higher reduction of 26% and 93% is seen in the stringent scenario. Improving aviation fuels is the most significant co-reduction measure, which can reduce CO 2 by 89% and 68% in 2030 and 2050, and reduce air pollutants by 86–89% and 62–65%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation sector; CO 2 emissions; air pollutants; scenario analysis; co-reduction of emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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