From the City to the Suburb: City Dynamics in the Time of a Polycrisis

Behnam Asadieh () and Paulina Maria Neisch
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Behnam Asadieh: Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
Paulina Maria Neisch: Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-18

Abstract: External events and crises significantly influence urban development. This study primarily aimed to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on city development dynamics through structural change and spatiotemporal analysis, focusing on the Hong Kong SAR as a case study. The analysis revealed disruptions across the office, residential, and retail property sectors during late 2019 and early 2020. The findings emphasize the “Polycrisis” concept, where overlapping social, economic, and health crises amplify impacts. The office sector demonstrated greater vulnerability, particularly in higher grade offices in and near central business districts. In contrast, the residential sector showed greater resilience overall, with smaller, centrally located units being more vulnerable, while larger, peripheral units exhibited a stronger resilience. The retail market responded distinctively, with peripheral areas experiencing a greater impact than the city core, reflecting pandemic-related restrictions. In general, the findings show that the recovery from the crises is slow and might affect future land use and urban planning norms. Additionally, population trends highlighted a shift toward suburban living, with recent rising densities in peripheral districts and population declines in central areas. This study’s insights contribute to policymaking, urban planning, and discussions on understanding the evolving city dynamics.

Keywords: decentralization; urban planning; migration; COVID-19; polycrisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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