Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Sales Volume of New Energy Vehicles in China and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Run Sun, Kun Yang (), Zongqi Peng (), Meie Pan, Danni Su, Mingfeng Zhang, Lusha Ma, Jingcong Ma and Tao Li
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Run Sun: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Kun Yang: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Zongqi Peng: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Meie Pan: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Danni Su: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Mingfeng Zhang: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Lusha Ma: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Jingcong Ma: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China
Tao Li: Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650091, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-15

Abstract: China’s transportation carbon emissions account for 10% of the total, with nearly 90% originating from road transport. Additionally, China is the world’s largest automotive demand market. Therefore, in the context of achieving the “dual carbon” goals, the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are particularly crucial. However, the current situation regarding the promotion trends and driving mechanisms of NEVs in China remains unclear. Therefore, this study, based on panel data, explores the spatial-temporal evolution of NEV sales in China from 2016 to 2022 through spatial analysis. Simultaneously, based on correlation analysis and geographical detectors, this study qualitatively and quantitatively investigates the driving factors of NEV sales in China. The results show that: (1) China’s NEV sales will increase by 5.7 million units in the seven years from 2016 to 2022, which is an extremely fast growth rate; (2) There are significant spatial-temporal heterogeneities in the sales of NEVs in China. Sales in the eastern region constitute the largest share among the four major economic regions, accounting for 61% by 2022. The northeastern region has the lowest sales, representing only 2.9% of the national total. (3) Among different provinces, the sales in coastal provinces such as Guangdong, ZheJiang, and Jiangsu are much higher than in inland provinces like Tibet and QingHai. (4) The contribution rates of driving factors vary across regions. Overall, however, the order of influence factors is as follows: road length (0.49) > proportion of the tertiary industry (0.48) > road area (0.40). Therefore, infrastructure is identified as the primary influencing factor for the promotion of NEV. This study has revealed the spatial-temporal evolution of NEV sales and their driving mechanisms, aiming to provide theoretical support for the promotion of NEVs in China.

Keywords: new energy vehicles; spatial-temporal evolution; driving factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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