Current and Potential Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) Scenarios in Dry Lands Using a CA-Markov Simulation Model and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) Method: A Cloud-Based Google Earth Engine (GEE) Approach

Elsayed A. Abdelsamie, Abdel-rahman A. Mustafa, Abdelbaset S. El-Sorogy, Hanafey F. Maswada, Sattam A. Almadani, Mohamed S. Shokr (), Ahmed I. El-Desoky and Jose Emilio Meroño de Larriva
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Elsayed A. Abdelsamie: National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, Cairo 1564, Egypt
Abdel-rahman A. Mustafa: Soil and Water Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Sohag University, Sohag 82524, Egypt
Abdelbaset S. El-Sorogy: Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Hanafey F. Maswada: Agricultural Botany Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt
Sattam A. Almadani: Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Mohamed S. Shokr: Soil and Water Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt
Ahmed I. El-Desoky: Department of Soils and Water, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Assiut 71524, Egypt
Jose Emilio Meroño de Larriva: Department of Graphic Engineering and Geomatics, Campus de Rabanales, University of Cordoba, 14071 Cordoba, Spain

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 24, 1-19

Abstract: Rapid population growth accelerates changes in land use and land cover (LULC), straining natural resource availability. Monitoring LULC changes is essential for managing resources and assessing climate change impacts. This study focused on extracting LULC data from 1993 to 2024 using the classification and regression tree (CART) method on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform in Qena Governorate, Egypt. Moreover, the cellular automata (CA) Markov model was used to anticipate the future changes in LULC for the research area in 2040 and 2050. Three multispectral satellite images—Landsat thematic mapper (TM), enhanced thematic mapper (ETM+), and operational land imager (OLI)—were analyzed and verified using the GEE code editor. The CART classifier, integrated into GEE, identified four major LULC categories: urban areas, water bodies, cultivated soils, and bare areas. From 1993 to 2008, urban areas expanded by 57 km 2 , while bare and cultivated soils decreased by 12.4 km 2 and 42.7 km 2 , respectively. Between 2008 and 2024, water bodies increased by 24.4 km 2 , urban areas gained 24.2 km 2 , and cultivated and bare soils declined by 22.2 km 2 and 26.4 km 2 , respectively. The CA-Markov model’s thematic maps highlighted the spatial distribution of forecasted LULC changes for 2040 and 2050. The results indicated that the urban areas, agricultural land, and water bodies will all increase. However, as anticipated, the areas of bare lands shrank during the years under study. These findings provide valuable insights for decision makers, aiding in improved land-use management, strategic planning for land reclamation, and sustainable agricultural production programs.

Keywords: CART; drylands; GEE; LULC; CA-Markov (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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