Optimal Ship Fuel Selection under Life Cycle Uncertainty

Jesper Zwaginga (), Benjamin Lagemann, Stein Ove Erikstad and Jeroen Pruyn
Additional contact information
Jesper Zwaginga: Department of Maritime and Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands
Benjamin Lagemann: Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7050 Trondheim, Norway
Stein Ove Erikstad: Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7050 Trondheim, Norway
Jeroen Pruyn: Department of Maritime and Transport Technology, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: Shipowners need to prepare for low-emission fuel alternatives to meet the IMO 2050 goals. This is a complex problem due to conflicting objectives and a high degree of uncertainty. To help navigate this problem, this paper investigates how methods that take uncertainty into account, like robust optimization and stochastic optimization, could be used to address uncertainty while taking into account multiple objectives. Robust optimization incorporates uncertainty using a scalable measure of conservativeness, while stochastic programming adds an expected value to the objective function that represents uncertain scenarios. The methods are compared by applying them to the same dataset for a Supramax bulk carrier and taking fuel prices and market-based measures as uncertain factors. It is found that both offer important insights into the impact of uncertainty, which is an improvement when compared to deterministic optimization, that does not take uncertainty into account. From a practical standpoint, both methods show that methanol and LNG ships allow a cheap but large reduction in emissions through the use of biofuels. More importantly, even though there are limitations due to the parameter range assumptions, ignoring uncertainty with respect to future fuels is worse as a starting point for discussions.

Keywords: ship design; alternative fuel; energy system selection; uncertainty; optimization; robust; stochastic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/5/1947/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/5/1947/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:5:p:1947-:d:1346892

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().