Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies

Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis, Lena Reimann (), Gerald Jan Ellen, Gunnel Goransson, Gerben Koers, Lisa Van Well, Bente Vollstedt, Maureen Tsakiris and Amy Oen
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Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis: Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 14, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Lena Reimann: Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 14, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Gerald Jan Ellen: Department of Urban Water and Subsurface, Unit Subsurface and Groundwater Systems, Deltares, Daltonlaan 600, 3584 BK Utrecht, The Netherlands
Gunnel Goransson: Department of Natural Hazards and Geodata, Swedish Geotechnical Institute, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
Gerben Koers: Department of Urban Water and Subsurface, Unit Subsurface and Groundwater Systems, Deltares, Daltonlaan 600, 3584 BK Utrecht, The Netherlands
Lisa Van Well: Department of Natural Hazards and Geodata, Swedish Geotechnical Institute, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
Bente Vollstedt: Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 14, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Maureen Tsakiris: Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 14, 24118 Kiel, Germany
Amy Oen: Department of Risk, Slope Stability and Climate Adaptation, NGI, N-0855 Oslo, Norway

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 6, 1-19

Abstract: Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On the other hand, locally developed scenarios may lack the global context, thus having limited comparability with or transferability to other locations. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), which have been primarily developed for climate impact research, provide the possibility to extend the existing global narratives and adapt them to local characteristics in order to develop locally relevant scenarios. Here, we propose a methodological framework for producing harmonized scenarios across different case studies. This framework was developed in the EVOKED project and combines elements of top-down and bottom-up approaches to develop local scenarios for four regions in northern Europe. We employ the SSP as boundary conditions and, in cooperation with stakeholders from these four regions, develop local scenarios for a range of SSP. The developed sets of scenarios are consistently informed by global developments and are therefore comparable with other downscaled scenarios developed in different regions. At the same time, they have been based on local participatory processes, thus being locally credible and relevant to the needs of stakeholders. The local scenarios constitute a climate service per se as they can raise stakeholder awareness of the processes that will drive risk, exposure, and adaptive capacity in the future and inform discussions on mitigation strategies and adaptation pathways.

Keywords: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; local scenarios; extended SSP; co-production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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