Sustainable Adaptation Plan in Response to Climate Change and Population Growth in the Iraqi Part of Tigris River Basin

Fouad H. Saeed (), Mahmoud Saleh Al-Khafaji, Furat A. Mahmood Al-Faraj () and Vincent Uzomah
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Fouad H. Saeed: Ministry of Water Recourses, Baghdad 10064, Iraq
Mahmoud Saleh Al-Khafaji: Department of Water Resources Engineering, University of Baghdad, Baghdad 10071, Iraq
Furat A. Mahmood Al-Faraj: School of Engineering, University of Bolton, Bolton BL3 5AB, UK
Vincent Uzomah: School of Science, Engineering & Environment, University of Salford, Salford M5 4WT, UK

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: Climate change and population growth play crucial roles in the planning of future water resources management strategies. In this paper, a balancing between projected water resources and water demands in the Iraqi Part of the Tigris River Basin (TRB) was evaluated till the year 2080 based on RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and population growth. This paper examined a sustainable adaptation plan of water resources in the TRB considering three scenarios; (S1) as no change in the current strategy, (S2) as improved irrigation efficiency and (S3) as improved irrigation and municipal water use efficiency. The results showed a decline in streamflow will occur in the range from 5 to 18.4% under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The minimum increase in water demand is expected for RCP 2.6 (maximum increase for RCP 8.5) by 51.8 (208.2), 9.9 (42) and 1.2 (7)% for the municipal–industrial, irrigation and environmental water demands, respectively, compared with the RP. The main finding indicated that S1 is the worst scenario, with water stress in four provinces, especially on the warmest RCP. Whereas, under S2 and S3 conditions, water stress can be eliminated. Increasing ambition towards adaptation becomes obligatory for developing sustainable water sources, supporting water food securities and increasing resilience towards climate change.

Keywords: SWAT; LARS-WG; CROPWAT-8; WEAP; climate change; adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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