Empowering Sustainability: A Consumer-Centric Analysis Based on Advanced Electricity Consumption Predictions

Hafize Nurgul Durmus Senyapar () and Ahmet Aksoz
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Hafize Nurgul Durmus Senyapar: Gazi University, Ankara 06560, Türkiye
Ahmet Aksoz: MOBILERS Team, Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Sivas 58140, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: This study addresses the critical challenge of accurately forecasting electricity consumption by utilizing Exponential Smoothing and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. The research aims to enhance the precision of forecasting in the dynamic energy landscape and reveals promising outcomes by employing a robust methodology involving model application to a large amount of consumption data. Exponential Smoothing demonstrates accurate predictions, as evidenced by a low Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) of 0.469. SARIMA, with its seasonal ARIMA structure, outperforms Exponential Smoothing, achieving lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values on both training (2.21%) and test (2.44%) datasets. This study recommends the adoption of SARIMA models, supported by lower MAPE values, to influence technology adoption and future-proof decision-making. This study highlights the societal implications of informed energy planning, including enhanced sustainability, cost savings, and improved resource allocation for communities and industries. The synthesis of model analysis, technological integration, and consumer-centric approaches marks a significant stride toward a resilient and efficient energy ecosystem. Decision-makers, stakeholders, and researchers may leverage findings for sustainable, adaptive, and consumer-centric energy planning, positioning the sector to address evolving challenges effectively and empowering consumers while maintaining energy efficiency.

Keywords: consumer-centric energy forecasting; exponential smoothing; SARIMA model; energy sector resource planning; consumer engagement; strategic investment; consumption patterns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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