Identifying the Contributing Sources of Uncertainties in Urban Flood Vulnerability in South Korea Considering Multiple GCMs, SSPs, Weight Determination Methods, and MCDM Techniques

Ghaith Falah Ziarh, Jin Hyuck Kim, Seung Taek Chae, Hae-Yeol Kang, Changyu Hong, Jae Yeol Song () and Eun-Sung Chung ()
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Ghaith Falah Ziarh: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
Jin Hyuck Kim: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
Seung Taek Chae: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
Hae-Yeol Kang: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
Changyu Hong: Division of Global and Interdisciplinary Studies, Pukyung National University, Pusan 48513, Republic of Korea
Jae Yeol Song: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
Eun-Sung Chung: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: This study quantified uncertainties involved in assessing the future flood vulnerability in 33 urban areas with population exceeding designated thresholds in South Korea. The driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework was utilized as the study procedure, integrating social, economic, and environmental factors. In addition, a total of 220 cases of combinations were examined, encompassing twenty general circulation models combined with shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, five weight determination methods, and three multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, as sources of inherent uncertainties in the process. The rankings of urban flood vulnerability (UFV) for the selected cities were comprehensively assessed considering all combinations, followed by an analysis of variance test to investigate contributing sources of uncertainties. As a result, Incheon and Busan were found to be vulnerable to flooding, while Yeongcheon and Andong appeared to be safe cities. Some cities exhibited wide ranges in their rankings, such as Daegu, Yangpyeon, and Jeongeup. The identified contributing sources were weighting (58%), MCDM (27%), and the combination of weighting and MCDM methods together (15%). This study revealed that weight determination methods and MCDM techniques are the primary sources of uncertainties in the assessment of future UFV instead of multiple GCMs and SSPs. This finding underscores the importance for decision-makers and stakeholders to carefully consider these uncertainties for sustainable flood risk management and prevention.

Keywords: urban flood vulnerability; multi-criteria decision making; uncertainty; analysis of variance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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