Evolution in Patterns of Urban Water Consumption Accompanying Socio-Economic Development

Sizhong He, Zhenzhen Ma (), Huashan Wang and Yuqin Gao
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Sizhong He: College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Zhenzhen Ma: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Huashan Wang: Zhengzhou Water Conservancy Bureau, Zhengzhou 450000, China
Yuqin Gao: College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 9, 1-22

Abstract: To explore the evolution in patterns of urban water consumption (UWC) accompanying socio-economic development, historical data on socio-economic conditions and water consumption in developed cities worldwide were collected. stages of evolution and patterns in UWC were identified through Pettitt tests. Through correlation analysis, the main socio-economic indicators influencing UWC were identified, and their threshold values for different trends in the evolution of UWC were statistically analyzed. The use of these patterns of evolution for UWC prediction was explored taking Changsha, China as a case study. Results indicate the following: (1) UWC typically increases in the early stage of development and then stabilizes or decreases later; (2) when UWC stabilizes or decreases, socio-economic indicators, namely per capita GDP, tertiary industry’s contribution to GDP, and urbanization rate, range from [USD 10,000, 60,000], [60%, 80%], and [85%, 95%], respectively, entering or approaching the developed economy stage. (3) Using patterns in this evolution, Changsha’s UWC is predicted to increase until the turning point, which will occur between 2027 and 2035 (earlier than that predicted using genetic programming) and then decrease earlier than that of Hunan Province or the entirety of China. Predicted values are lower than those obtained using the quota method. This study provides a new perspective on relationships between UWC and socio-economic conditions, supporting water resources planning.

Keywords: urban water consumption; socio-economic indicator; evolution stages and patterns; water consumption prediction; Pettitt test method; statistical analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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