Impact of Climate Change on Culex pipiens Mosquito Distribution in the United States

Sanad H. Ragab, Abeer Mousa Alkhaibari, Jalal Alharbi, Sultan Mohammed Areshi, Abadi M. Mashlawi (), Doaa M. Embaby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Tharwat A. Selim and Mohamed Kamel
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Sanad H. Ragab: Department of Zoology and Entomology, Faculty of Science (Boys), Al-Azhar University, Cairo 11651, Egypt
Abeer Mousa Alkhaibari: Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, Tabuk 71491, Saudi Arabia
Jalal Alharbi: Vector Control Center in Al-Ardah, Ministry of Health, Riyadh 12613, Saudi Arabia
Sultan Mohammed Areshi: Department of Biology, College of Science, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
Abadi M. Mashlawi: Department of Biology, College of Science, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
Doaa M. Embaby: Zoology and Entomology Department, Faculty of Science (Girls), Al-Azhar University, Cairo 11651, Egypt
Michael G. Tyshenko: Risk Sciences International, Ottawa, ON K1P 5H6, Canada
Tharwat A. Selim: Department of Zoology and Entomology, Faculty of Science (Boys), Al-Azhar University, Cairo 11651, Egypt
Mohamed Kamel: Department of Environmental Basic Sciences, Faculty of Graduate Studies and Environmental Research, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, Egypt

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 17, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) is a disease vector for the West Nile virus (WNV). Climate change impacts the disease transmission carried by mosquitoes, and it is partly to blame for the resurgence of mosquitoes as important disease vector insects. This study assessed the geographic range of Culex pipiens in the United States under both present and projected climatic scenarios, identifying the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution. Employing species distribution modeling (MaxEnt, Version 3.4.1) and occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we examined the effects of key variables, including altitude, temperature seasonality (bio4), and annual precipitation (bio12), on habitat suitability for C. pipiens . The analysis revealed that altitude accounted for 60.3% of the model’s explanatory power, followed by temperature seasonality (31%) and annual precipitation (8.7%). Areas having low elevation and moderate temperature fluctuations were the most favorable for C. pipiens , with a predicted range extending across the Midwest and southeastern United States under present variables. Future projections for 2050 and 2070 under Representative Concentration Pathway (climatic change) scenarios suggest possible northward expansion in response to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. The study highlights some shifts in C. pipiens distribution and the potential for increased disease transmission into new areas. This study serves as a catalyst for decision-makers to coordinate their management reaction and create more resilient and comprehensive strategies to safeguard human health.

Keywords: mosquito-borne diseases; west nile virus; geographic distribution; global warming; maxent; USA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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