Biased Perception of Macroecological Findings Triggered by the IPCC—The Example of Wildfires

Carsten Hobohm () and Volker Müller-Benedict
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Carsten Hobohm: Ecology and Environmental Education, University of Flensburg (EUF), 24943 Flensburg, Germany
Volker Müller-Benedict: Seminar for Social Sciences, Empirical Studies and Statistics, University of Flensburg (EUF), 24943 Flensburg, Germany

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 17, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: Global change and disturbance ecology, including the risks and benefits of wildfires for humans, sustainability of ecosystems and biodiversity, is a current research topic in applied science. Fires and their impacts are often considered in the context of climate change, carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution. Despite a significant decline in wildfires at the global scale in recent decades (cf. Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS)), it is a widespread conviction that the burned area is increasing due to global warming. In an attempt to identify how this discrepancy has arisen, we analysed IPCC reports from 2018–2023 via text mining including word frequency analyses and compared considerations about wildfires and fire weather with findings from ecology and public information on the internet. Both a negativity bias and repetition bias were identified. Numerous examples of disasters and models indicating a global increase of wildfires are composed of alarming messages. Examples of decreasing wildfires and the global decline are much less frequently communicated. Important facts are ignored, especially in summaries for policymakers. Measured against fire-ecological conditions and benefits for the nature, alarming trends and risks due to climate change are exaggerated. We therefore call for a comprising and differentiated reflection of ecological conditions and processes in the future.

Keywords: wildfire; forest fire; sustainability of fire-adapted ecosystems; text mining; word frequency analysis; cognitive distortion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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