Simulation and Pathway Selection for China’s Carbon Peak: A Multi-Objective Nonlinear Dynamic Optimization Approach

Liang Shen, Qiheng Yuan, Qi He, Peng Jiang, Haoyang Ji and Junyi Shi ()
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Liang Shen: State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China
Qiheng Yuan: State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China
Qi He: State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China
Peng Jiang: State Grid Corporation of China Big Data Center, Beijing 100033, China
Haoyang Ji: Carbon Econometric Research Center, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China
Junyi Shi: Carbon Econometric Research Center, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 17, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: This study innovatively develops a multi-objective Markal-Macro model, which simultaneously considers three objectives: minimizing carbon emissions from energy consumption, minimizing carbon emissions from production processes, and maximizing societal welfare. Based on the Cobb–Douglas production function, we construct a production function of carbon emission and use it as a coupling equation of the Markal-Macro model (Markal is the abbreviation of market allocation, and Macro is the abbreviation of macroeconomy). This enables the coupling of the endogenous variables of carbon emissions and those related to maximizing societal welfare. By collecting relevant data on energy consumption, production outputs, and key economic indicators, five different scenarios are established. To enhance the computational efficiency of the simulation, we introduce a Firefly Algorithm into the penalty function method. The objective of our simulation is to explore the optimal carbon peak pathway for China. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, China can achieve its carbon peak by 2029, with the peak value reaching approximately 12.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Finally, based on the simulation results, this study provides specific policy recommendations for China’s carbon peak pathway, addressing aspects such as industrial structure, energy consumption structure, the share of clean energy, economic growth targets, and the growth of emission reduction expenditures, while considering regional five-year plans and regional carbon peak strategies. From the aspect of the practical contributions, this article not only provides a set of methods for policymakers to make the Carbon Peak Implementation Plan but also offers an optimal path to improve the sustainable development for China.

Keywords: carbon peak; multi-objective optimization; markal-macro model; optimization methods; scenario analysis for carbon peak (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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