Evolution and Future Challenges of Hydrological Elements in the Qinglongshan Irrigation Area: A Study on the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the Qinglongshan Irrigation Area Model

Ziwen Yin, Yan Liu (), Zhenjiang Si (), Longfei Wang, Tienan Li and Yan Meng
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Ziwen Yin: Heilong Jiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
Yan Liu: Heilong Jiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
Zhenjiang Si: College of Water Resources and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Longfei Wang: Heilong Jiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
Tienan Li: Heilong Jiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
Yan Meng: Heilong Jiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 17, issue 1, 1-23

Abstract: In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was first initialized for the Qinglongshan Irrigation Area (QLS). We aimed to assess the impacts of climate and land use (LULC) changes between 1980 and 2020 on several hydrological parameters in the QLS, including actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil water (SW), soil recharge to groundwater (PERC), surface runoff (SURQ), groundwater runoff (GWQ), and lateral runoff (LATQ). We predicted the trends in hydrological factors from 2021 to 2050. Based on the S1 scenario, the precipitation and the paddy field area decreased by 42.28 mm and 1717.65 km 2 , respectively; hydrological factors increased by 91.53, 104.28, 50.66, 21.86, 55.93, and 0.79 mm, respectively, in the QLS. Climate changes contributed 6.10%, −7.58%, −54.11%, 26.90%, −121.17%, and −31.66% to changes in hydrological factors, respectively; LULC changes contributed −2.19%, 3.63%, 11.61%, −2.93%, 25.89%, and 16.86%, respectively; and irrigation water volume changes contributed 96.09%, 103.95%, 142.50%, 76.03%, 195.28%, and 114.80%, respectively. Irrigation and water intake were the main factors affecting the changes in hydrological elements. This was followed by climatic changes and LULC. In natural development scenarios, the QLS is anticipated to face challenges, including increased actual ET, reduced seepage and groundwater contribution, and declining groundwater levels.

Keywords: SWAT-QLS model; climate change; land use change; hydrological factors; irrigation areas; CMIP6 data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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