Prediction of China’s Carbon Price Based on the Genetic Algorithm–Particle Swarm Optimization–Back Propagation Neural Network Model

Jining Wang, Xuewei Zhao and Lei Wang ()
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Jining Wang: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Xuewei Zhao: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Lei Wang: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 17, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: Traditional BP neural networks frequently encounter local optima during carbon price forecasts. This study adopts a hybrid approach, combining a genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization (GA-PSO) to improve the BP neural network, resulting in the creation of a GA-PSO-BP neural network model. Seven critical factors were identified affecting carbon prices, and we utilized data on carbon emission trading prices from China for the analysis. Compared to traditional BP neural network models, including GA-BP neural network models optimized solely with genetic algorithms and PSO-BP neural network models enhanced through particle swarm optimization, the findings reveal that the GA-PSO-BP neural network model demonstrates superior performance in terms of precision and robustness. Furthermore, it demonstrates advancements across various error evaluation metrics, thus delivering more accurate forecasts. Offering precise carbon price predictions, the enhanced GA-PSO-BP neural network model proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing the market and making decisions in the carbon pricing sector.

Keywords: genetic algorithm; particle swarm optimization; bp neural network; carbon price prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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