Towards Demographic Sustainability: Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Evolution and Factors of Population Aging in the Bohai Rim Region

Guangzhi Qi, Zhibao Wang () and Chengxin Wang ()
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Guangzhi Qi: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
Zhibao Wang: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
Chengxin Wang: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 4, 1-26

Abstract: In recent years, population aging has started to profoundly affect the sustainable development of human society. Compared to developed countries, China faces a more pronounced challenge of “aging before affluence”. Based on data from China’s 5–7th national censuses, we selected relevant indicators such as the population aging rate and aging population growth rate to explore the multi-scale spatiotemporal evolution of population aging in the Bohai Rim Region during 2000–2020. On this basis, we classified the types of regional population aging. Representative indicators from two dimensions—population and socio-economic factors—were selected to analyze the driving factors of population aging using the Geodetector method. The results show that the degree of population aging exhibited a deepening trend in the Bohai Rim Region during 2000–2020, with its spatial clustering characteristics becoming increasingly pronounced. However, spatial clustering at the district and county scales was weaker than that at the prefectural scale. Overall, population aging exhibits a pattern whereby the eastern regions, centered on the Liaodong Peninsula and Jiaodong Peninsula, experience deeper levels of aging compared to the western regions. The growth rate of the aging population followed a declining trend across administrative divisions, in the order of urban districts, county-level cities, counties, and autonomous counties. At the prefectural, district, and county scales, demographic and socio-economic factors demonstrated significant influences, with population factors showing higher q -values than socio-economic factors. There are significant spillover effects of demographic and socio-economic factors on population aging in the BRR, with fertility, education, and urbanization being key drivers. Policy recommendations should focus on addressing regional disparities, with aging cities needing expanded care services and regions affected by out-migration requiring community-based care and better resource integration.

Keywords: population aging; spatiotemporal evolution; geographical detector; spatial spillover effects; the Bohai Rim Region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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