Trend Prediction and Decomposed Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province during 2015–2020

Decai Tang, Tingyu Ma, Zhijiang Li, Jiexin Tang and Brandon J. Bethel
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Decai Tang: Institute of Climate Change and Public Policy, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Tingyu Ma: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Zhijiang Li: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Jiexin Tang: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Brandon J. Bethel: School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Sustainability, 2016, vol. 8, issue 10, 1-15

Abstract: According to the economic and energy consumption statistics in Jiangsu Province, we combined the GM (1, 1) grey model and polynomial regression to forecast carbon emissions. Historical and projected emissions were decomposed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to assess the relative contribution of different factors to emission variability. The results showed that carbon emissions will continue to increase in Jiangsu province during 2015–2020 period and cumulative carbon emissions will increase by 39.5487 million tons within the forecast period. The growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita plays the greatest positive role in driving carbon emission growth. Furthermore, the improvement of energy usage efficiency is the primary factor responsible for reducing carbon emissions. Factors of population, industry structure adjustment and the optimization of fuel mix also help to reduce carbon emissions. Based on the LMDI analysis, we provide some advice for policy-makers in Jiangsu and other provinces in China.

Keywords: carbon emissions; GM (1, 1); LMDI decomposition analysis model; trend prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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