Addressing Wildfire Risk in Forest Management Planning with Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods

Susete Marques, Marco Marto, Vladimir Bushenkov, Marc McDill and JoséG. Borges
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Susete Marques: Forest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal
Marco Marto: Forest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal
Vladimir Bushenkov: Research Centre for Mathematics and Applications, University of Évora, Colégio Luís Verney, Rua Romão Ramalho, 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal
Marc McDill: Department of Ecosystems Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, 310 Forest Resources Building University Park, State College, PA 16802-4301, USA
JoséG. Borges: Forest Research Center, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 2, 1-17

Abstract: Wildfires impact the outcomes of forest management plans. Addressing that impact is thus critical for effective forest ecosystem management planning. This paper presents research on the use of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods that integrate wildfire risk in planning contexts characterized by multiple objectives. Specifically, an a posteriori preference modeling approach is developed that adds wildfire criteria to a set of objectives representing ecosystem services supply values. Wildfire risk criteria are derived from stand-level wildfire occurrence and damage models as well as from the characteristics of neighboring stands that may impact wildfire probability and spread. A forested landscape classified into 1976 stands is used for testing purposes. The management planning criteria include the carbon stock, harvest volumes for three forest species, the volume of the ending inventory, and resistance to wildfire risk indicators. Results show the potential of multiple criteria decision making methods to provide information about trade-offs between wildfire risk and the supply of provisioning (timber) as well as regulatory (carbon) ecosystem services. This information may contribute to the effectiveness of forest ecosystem management planning.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making methods; Pareto frontier methods; wildfire risk criteria; ecosystem services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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