Risk Assessment of China’s Overseas Oil Refining Investment Using a Fuzzy-Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method

Hui Li, Kangyin Dong (), Hongdian Jiang, Renjin Sun, Xiaoyue Guo and Yiqiao Fan
Additional contact information
Hui Li: School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
Hongdian Jiang: School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
Renjin Sun: School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
Xiaoyue Guo: School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
Yiqiao Fan: Chongqing CISDI Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Chongqing 400010, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 5, 1-18

Abstract: Following the “going out” strategy, Chinese oil and gas companies have been widely involved in investing and operating business abroad to mitigate the increasing energy imbalance between supply and demand. Overseas oil investment, characterized by high risks and high returns, plays a significant role in ensuring energy security and strengthening global competitiveness in China. However, compared with overseas upstream projects, the downstream oil refining investment is still in the preliminary development stage, with limited experience for references, which further increases the risk surrounding such multibillion-dollar ventures. Hence, it is significant to assess the investment risks so as to help investors be fully aware of them and then make optimal investment decisions. To this end, this paper successfully identifies the main risk factors, including the local investment environment risk, technical risk, organization management risk, health, safety and environment (HSE) and social responsibility risk, and economic risk. Then, a qualitative-quantitative comprehensive risk evaluation method, combining the fuzzy mathematics and the grey system theory, is proposed and applied to analyze the investment risks of one Chinese overseas oil refining project as a case study. The assessment results are basically in accordance with the practical conditions, which validate the reliability and reasonability of the proposed risk assessment model in regard to the overseas oil refining project. The findings of this research provide the theoretical foundation and practical methodology of the risk analysis for future investment in oil refining areas.

Keywords: overseas oil refining project; risk assessment; fuzzy-grey comprehensive evaluation; analytical hierarchy process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/696/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/696/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:696-:d:97055

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().