Assessing Agricultural Drought Vulnerability by a VSD Model: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

Jiansheng Wu, Xin Lin, Meijuan Wang, Jian Peng and Yuanjie Tu
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Jiansheng Wu: Key Laboratory for Urban Habitant Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China
Xin Lin: Key Laboratory for Urban Habitant Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China
Meijuan Wang: Tourism School, Shandong Woman University, Jinan 250000, China
Jian Peng: Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Yuanjie Tu: Key Laboratory for Urban Habitant Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: Drought vulnerability of agriculture is significant to economic development and sustainable food production. In this paper, we proposed a framework to evaluate the regional agricultural-eco environment in the face of drought caused by climate change. Based on a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model, we built up a comprehensive system to evaluate the agricultural drought vulnerability of Yunnan Province in China. The model highlights the human-land relationship by considering both natural conditions and human activities. Twelve indicators were generated to construct three components of the model: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. During the construction of the VSD model, the entropy and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) comprehensive analysis method were adopted to generate the weights and to compute the composite index for each section. Furthermore, the factor analysis method was used to determine the dominant factors of different cities and the main indicators driving the system. The results indicated a spatial pattern that the vulnerability value was high on the eastern and western sides, but low in the middle of Yunnan Province. Most of the vulnerable regions were concentrated in remote areas. Indicators such as population density, irrigation level, annual average precipitation, cultivation land ratio, and difficulty of water supply were the main driving factors. This means that there is a deep connection between agricultural drought vulnerability and urbanization. The evaluation system developed during this research will provide guidance for drought mitigation in regions of complex terrain.

Keywords: agricultural drought vulnerability; VSD mode; factor contribution method; Yunnan Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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