Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

Masataka Kasai, Tsubasa Okaze, Akashi Mochida and Kazumasa Hanaoka
Additional contact information
Masataka Kasai: Department of Architecture and Building Science, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8579, Japan
Tsubasa Okaze: Department of Architecture and Building Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama 226-8502, Japan
Akashi Mochida: Department of Architecture and Building Science, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8579, Japan
Kazumasa Hanaoka: Department of Geography, College of Letters, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto 603-8577, Japan

Sustainability, 2017, vol. 9, issue 8, 1-17

Abstract: The incidence of heatstroke has been increasing in Japan, and future climate change is likely to increase heatstroke risk. We therefore developed a method to quantify the spatial distribution of outdoor heatstroke risk and predicted future changes in this risk considering the predicted climate change in Sendai, Japan. Heatstroke risk was quantified by assessing hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was selected as the hazard index. The distribution of WBGT was predicted by mesoscale meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The relationship between daily maximum WBGT and the daily incidence rate was approximated by analyzing emergency transport data. This relationship was selected as the vulnerability index. Using the hazard and vulnerability indices, a spatial distribution of the monthly incidence rate was obtained. Finally, the total number of heatstroke patients per month was estimated by multiplying the monthly incidence rate by the population density. The outdoor heatstroke risk for August was then estimated for current (2000s) and near-future (2030s) climatic conditions in Sendai. WBGT at coastal areas in the 2030s increased owing to increases in humidity, while WBGT at inland areas increased owing to increases in air temperature. This increase in WBGT drove increases in heatstroke risk.

Keywords: heatstroke risk; wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT); Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; global climate model; future prediction; climate change; Sendai (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/8/1467/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/8/1467/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:1467-:d:108857

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().