Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents

Camille Cornand and Paul Hubert ()
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Paul Hubert: Banque de France & Sciences Po – OFCE, 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs, 75001 Paris, France

No 2116, Working Papers from Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon

Abstract: We compare disagreement in expectations and the frequency of forecast revisions among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. We provide evidence of disagreement among all categories of agents. There is however a strong heterogeneity across categories: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. This translates into a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revision across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households last revise less frequently. We are also able to explore the external validity of experimental expectations.

Keywords: inflation expectations; information frictions; disagreement; forecast revisions; experimental forecasts; survey forecasts; central bank forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E5 E7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents (2022)
Working Paper: Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents (2021)
Working Paper: Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gat:wpaper:2116

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