Predicting the NFL Performance of Highly-Drafted Quarterbacks

Jeremy Rosen () and Alexandre Olbrecht
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Jeremy Rosen: Department of Economics, Georgetown University, http://econ.georgetown.edu/

Working Papers from Georgetown University, Department of Economics

Abstract: We estimate econometric models to predict the future performance of National Football League (NFL) quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Using previously agreed-upon measurement criteria, we find that our approach outperforms other specifications currently in use. Since our methods are replicable, stakeholders can use them to improve the draft’s efficiency and help it accomplish its mission to promote competitive balance. In addition, we find that functional mobility best predicts NFL success, and playing in a pro-style offense does not predict NFL success.

Keywords: Efficiency; Prediction Methods; NFL; Quarterback (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27
Date: 2017-12-05
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