Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data

Katja Landau, Stephan Klasen and Walter Zucchini
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Katja Landau: Georg-August-University Göttingen
Walter Zucchini: Georg-August-University Göttingen

No 118, Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers from Courant Research Centre PEG

Abstract: We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply di fferent regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.

Keywords: vulnerability; poverty; ROC; German panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C52 I32 O29 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-07-06
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Related works:
Working Paper: Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data (2012)
Working Paper: Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:got:gotcrc:118

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