Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach

Severin Reissl, Alessandro Caiani, Francesco Lamperti, Mattia Guerini, Fabio Vanni, Giorgio Fagiolo (), Tommaso Ferraresi, Leonardo Ghezzi, Mauro Napoletano and Andrea Roventini
Additional contact information
Alessandro Caiani: IUSS Pavia
Francesco Lamperti: Institute of Economics and EMbeDS, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
Fabio Vanni: Sciences Po, OFCE
Tommaso Ferraresi: Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana
Leonardo Ghezzi: Istituto Regionale per la Programmazione Economica della Toscana

No 2021-15, GREDEG Working Papers from Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France

Abstract: We build a novel computational input-output model to estimate the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. The key advantage of our framework is to integrate the regional and sectoral dimensions of economic production in a very parsimonious numerical simulation framework. Lockdowns are treated as shocks to available labor supply and they are calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. We show that when estimated on data from the first "hard" lock-down, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. In addition, we show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample forecasting performance. We also analyze the e ects of the second "mild" lockdown in fall of 2020 which delivered a much more moderate negative impact on production compared to both the spring 2020 lockdown and to a hypothetical second "hard" lockdown.

Keywords: Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 C67 D57 E17 I18 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-eur, nep-hme and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://195.220.190.85/GREDEG-WP-2021-15.pdf First version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach (2022)
Working Paper: Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy: a computational input-output approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy: a computational input-output approach (2021)
Working Paper: Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input-Output Approach (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gre:wpaper:2021-15

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in GREDEG Working Papers from Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Patrice Bougette ().