The implications of climate change on Germany s foreign trade: A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses

Nina Knittel (), Martin W. Jury (), Birgit Bednar-Friedl (), Gabriel Bachner () and Andrea Steiner ()
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Nina Knittel: University of Graz, Austria
Martin W. Jury: University of Graz, Austria
Birgit Bednar-Friedl: University of Graz, Austria
Gabriel Bachner: University of Graz, Austria
Andrea Steiner: University of Graz, Austria

No 2018-20, Graz Economics Papers from University of Graz, Department of Economics

Abstract: We investigate climate change impacts transferred via foreign trade to Germany, a country which is heavily engaged in international trade. Specifically, we look at temperature changes and the associated labour productivity losses at a global scale until 2050. We assess the effects on Germany s imports and exports by means of a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. To address uncertainty, we account for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using projections from five global climate models. We find that average annual labour productivity for high intensity work declines by up to 31% (38% with the higher emission scenario) in South-East Asia and the Middle East by 2050 (relative to a 2050 baseline without climate change). As a consequence, Germany s imports from regions outside Europe are lower by up to 2.4%, while imports from within Europe partly compensate this reduction. Also Germany s exports to regions outside Europe are lower but total exports increase slightly due to higher exports to EU regions. Germany s GDP and welfare, however, are negatively affected with a loss of up to -0.41% and -0.46%, respectively. The results highlight that overall positive trade effects for Germany constitute a comparative improvement rather than an absolute gain with climate change.

Keywords: Heat stress; Climate change; Labour productivity shocks; International trade; Computable general equilibrium; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F18 I15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env, nep-int and nep-sea
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