Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems

Wusheng Yu, Thomas Hertel, Paul Preckel () and James Eales

GTAP Working Papers from Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Abstract: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are increasingly being used to project world food markets in order to support forward-looking policy analysis. Such projections hinge critically on the underlying functional form for representing consumer demand. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand. We adopt as our benchmark the recently introduced AIDADS demand system and compare it with several alternative demand systems currently in widespread use in CGE models. This comparison is conducted in the context of projections for disaggregated global food demand using a global CGE model. We find that AIDADS represents a substantial improvement, particularly for the rapidly growing developing countries. For these economies, the most widely used demand systems tend to over-predict future food demands, and hence overestimate future production and import requirements for agricultural products.

Date: 2003
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-mac
Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 21
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=1182 (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems (2004)
Working Paper: PROJECTING WORLD FOOD DEMAND USING ALTERNATIVE DEMAND SYSTEMS (2003)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gta:workpp:1182

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in GTAP Working Papers from Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jeremy Douglas ().