The META 21 Integrated Assessment Model in GAMS and LHS Sampling

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

GTAP Working Papers from Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Abstract: The META 21 Integrated Assessment Model (Dietz et al., 2021) represents a fairly comprehensive climate change simulation model incorporating a number of features: (a) a recent simple climate model; (b) down-scaling of temperature change to the country level; (c) integration of a number of bio-physical tipping points linked to rising temperatures; and (d) economic damages linked to rising sea levels and temperature using recent country-level estimates from the literature. The original implementation of META 21 was in Excel and linked to the @Risk Excel add-in for performing Monte Carlo-type analysis. This paper reflects a translation of META 21 into GAMS. One of the key purposes is to allow for ready incorporation of many of the features of META 21 into other models—notably CGE-based IAMs. To replace the features provided by the @Risk Excel add-in, this paper also introduces a software package that produces random deviates—and, similar to @Risk, uses the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) approach, which is a stratified sampling technique intended to cover the entire sampling space efficiently and, in addition, orders the sample to reflect a desired correlation matrix for the sampled random variables.

Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 95
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gta:workpp:7036

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