The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs

Chao Wei and Shanjun Li

Working Papers from The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: During the recent economic crisis, many countries have adopted stimulus programs designed to achieve two goals: to stimulate economic activity in lagging durable goods sectors and to protect or even enhance environmental quality. The environmental benefits are often viewed and much advocated as co-benefits of economic stimulus. This paper investigates the potential tradeoff between the stimulus and environmental objectives in the context of the popular U.S. Cash-for-Clunkers (CFC) program by developing and estimated a dynamic discrete choice model of vehicle ownership. Results from counterfactual analysis based on several specifications all show that the design elements to achieve environmental benefits significantly limit the program impact on demand stimulus: the cost of vehicle demand stimulus after netting out environmental benefits can be up to 77 percent higher under the program than that from an alternative policy design without the design elements aimed at the environmental objective.

Keywords: Stimulus; Dynamic Discrete Choice Model; Vehicle Scrappage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H23 H31 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2014-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dcm, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-ger, nep-mac and nep-tre
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2014WP/WeiIIEPWP201412.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs (2016)
Working Paper: The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-12

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