What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?

Tara Sinclair, Jeff Messina and Herman Stekler
Additional contact information
Jeff Messina: Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University

Working Papers from The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: Although there have been many evaluations of the Fed Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis permits us to determine whether there was an underutilization of information. There is no evidence of forecast smoothing, but rather that the revisions were sometimes in the wrong direction.

Keywords: Federal Reserve; Forecast Evaluation; Forecast Revisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E2 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2014WP/SinclairIIEPWP201414.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts? (2015)
Working Paper: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS? (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-14

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