Impact of Population Aging on Japanese International Travel

James Mak (), Lonny Carlile and Sally Dai ()
Additional contact information
James Mak: Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Lonny Carlile: Center for Japanese Studies, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Sally Dai: East-West Center

No 200408, Working Papers from University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper we forecast Japanese international travel to 2025. In addition to the usual economic variables, our model also captures both population aging and cohort effects on Japanese travel abroad. We predict the number of future Japanese overseas trips for males and females separately by five-year age groups and in five-year increments. We conclude that the Japanese will continue to travel abroad in increasing numbers but population aging will dramatically slow overall future Japanese overseas travel. While the number of “senior” travelers is predicted to increase sharply, we foresee fewer overseas trips taken by Japanese, especially among women, in the 20s and early 30s age groups. Finally, we examine the responses of the industry and the public sector in Japan to implications of a rapidly aging population on future international travel

JEL-codes: C53 D12 F14 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2004
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_04-8.pdf First version, 2004 (application/pdf)

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