Party’s rating and electoral forecasting: the case of French Presidential in 2022

François Facchini

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: This article is an update and extension of the electoral forecasting model of Lafay, Facchini and Auberger (2007) for the French presidential elections of 2022. Lafay and al. argued that the Socialist Party's rating was a good way to predict the vote split in the second round of elections between the left and the right. Socialist Pary's rating, nonetheless, cannot explain Emmanuel Macron's victory in the 2017 elections. This does not mean that party ratings are not a good predictor of the 2022 elections, if a number of adjustments are made. Based on party ratings the indicators proposed in this article argue that the scores in the first round of the April 2022 elections should be as follows: 30.5% for Emmanuel Macron, 22.7% for Valérie Pécresse (all the candidates of right wing), 18,7% for Marine Le Pen and 24.7% for the left and far left. The second round Macron - Pécresse is favorable to Emmanuel Macron, but depends fundamentally on the vote transfers between the left and the outgoing President. If the left abstains and Marine Le Pen's election rallies to the candidate of the right (LR), then Valérie Pécresse can win with a score of 51% against 49%.

Keywords: Election; Popularity functions; Vote functions; Vote - France; Fonction de popularité; Fonction de vote (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-03-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-for and nep-pol
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03624729
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Published in PS: Political Science and Politics, 2022, pp.1-8. ⟨10.1017/S1049096522000440⟩

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Working Paper: Party’s rating and electoral forecasting: the case of French Presidential in 2022 (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03624729

DOI: 10.1017/S1049096522000440

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