Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns

Johanna Etner, Josselin Thuilliez and Hippolyte d'Albis

Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) from HAL

Abstract: We provide one of the first formalizations of a vaccination campaign in a decisiontheoretic framework. We analyse a model where an ambiguity-averse individual must decide how much effort to invest into prevention in the context of a rampant disease. We study how ambiguity aversion affects the effort and the estimation of the vaccine efficacy in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. We find that the behaviours of individuals participating in a clinical trial differ from individuals not participating. Individuals who are more optimistic toward vaccination participate more in trials. Their behaviours and efforts are also affected. As a result, because vaccine efficacy depends on unobserved behaviours and efforts, the biological effect of the vaccine becomes difficult to evaluate. During the scale-up phase of a vaccination campaign, provided that vaccine efficacy is established, we show that vaccine hesitancy may still be rational.

Keywords: Decision Theory; Vaccination; Clinical Trials; Immunization Campaigns Decision Theory; Immunization Campaigns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Related works:
Journal Article: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2023)
Working Paper: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2023)
Working Paper: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2023)
Working Paper: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2023)
Working Paper: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2022)
Working Paper: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2022)
Working Paper: Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns (2022)
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