From deterministic to stochastic surrender risk models: impact of correlation crises on economic capital

Stéphane Loisel and Xavier Milhaud ()
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Xavier Milhaud: LSAF - Laboratoire de Sciences Actuarielle et Financière - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon, Axa Cessions - AXA

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Abstract: In this paper we raise the matter of considering a stochastic modeling of the surrender rate instead of the classical S-shaped deterministic curve (in function of the spread), still used in almost all insurance companies. A stochastic model in which surrenders are conditionally independent with respect to a S-curve disturbance would be tempting in some extreme scenarii, especially to address the question of the lack of data. However, we explain why this conditional independence between policyholders, which has the advantage to be the simplest assumption, looks particularly maladaptive when the spread increases. Indeed the correlation between policyholders' decisions is most likely to increase in this situation. We suggest and develop a simple model which integrates those phenomena. With stochastic orders it is possible to compare it to the conditional independence approach qualitatively. In an partially internal Solvency II model, we quantify the impact of the correlation phenomenon on a real life portfolio for a global risk management strategy.

Keywords: risk management; applied probability; life insurance; surrender risk; correlation risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00502847v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

Published in European Journal of Operational Research, 2011, 214 (2), pp.348-357. ⟨10.1016/j.ejor.2011.04.038⟩

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Related works:
Working Paper: From deterministic to stochastic surrender risk models: impact of correlation crises on economic capital (2012)
Journal Article: From deterministic to stochastic surrender risk models: Impact of correlation crises on economic capital (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00502847

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.04.038

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